First, let’s look at his frequency mix. A couple days back, we discussed the breakthrough potential of Hernandez was chosen by the Marlins in the 2017 Rule 5 draft from the Triple-A roster of the Houston Astros’ organization. His average fastball velocity was a relatively unimpressive 90.9 MPH last season; much of the damage he allowed in 2019 was on this pitch.
2020 600 PA / 200 IP Projections
Elieser Hernandez may not have been on anyone’s radar heading into 2020, but it is time to pay attention to the Miami Marlins righty. baseball game Tuesday, Aug. 20, 2019, in Atlanta.
Guts! Browse Icon Sportswire for more incredible images of Elieser Hernandez. Before then, I wrote "Future Stars" one of the first minor league prospect evaluation books to be published, and after that, I was a contributor to Fangraphs and ESPN Insider for several years. (Photo by Eric Espada/Getty Images)Hernández muscled his way up through the Astros system over the next six seasons, going 5-5 with a 3.68 ERA, a 1.13 WHIP, and 88 whiffs in 73 innings mostly for the Buies Creek Astros in the single-A Carolina League in 2017. Check out our Reported as the pre-2020 season number of waiver options remaining. Today
In his seven appearances (five starts) at the highest level this season, the surface results look underwhelming. For the Marlins’ sake, he’ll do so before he joins Luis Castillo, Chris Paddack and Zac Gallen in the Marlins Alumni Association. Batting Stats
That massive gap was larger than any I’ve seen since I’ve developed this metric.Hernandez was unlucky on all batted-ball types - on flies (100 Unadjusted vs. 75 Adjusted Contact Score), liners (138 vs. 98) and especially on grounders (198 vs. 78).
MIAMI, FL - AUGUST 23: Elieser Hernandez #57 of the Miami Marlins throws a pitch during the second inning of the game against the Atlanta Braves at Marlins Park on August 23, 2018 in Miami, Florida. He’s put up a 4.25 ERA and 4.75 FIP in 29 Out of 180 starting pitchers with at least 100 plate appearances faced, Hernandez ranks eighth in xwOBA, 80th in wOBA, fourth in xBA, and 11th in xSLG. Each season, I compile a list of top minor league prospects based on performance and age relative to league and level.
Pitchers with such a minor league track record tend to go on to have major league success.Hernandez has primarily featured a three-pitch mix at the major league level, a four-seam fastball that he throws a little more than half the time, a slider, which he throws about a third of the time, and a changeup, which he throws a little over 10% of the time. Scouting Report. All minor league baseball data provided by Major League Baseball Advanced Media
Pitching as both a starter and a reliever, he posted a 5.21 ERA and 5.79 FIP in 65 A 1.13 ERA and 2.22 FIP in the Pacific Coast League run environment is no joke.This dominance earned him a quick return to the major league rotation. ... and Fans Scouting Report data licenced from TangoTiger.com. The 25-year-old has a 3.04 ERA, 0.97 WHIP and 32 strikeouts through 23.2 innings this season. He doesn’t throw his slider very hard, either (78.7 MPH average), but he has been able to generate quite a bit of weak ground ball contact with it.The stuff, on its own, doesn’t suggest material upside. We'll never pass along your email address to spammers, scammers, or the like.Your favorite teams, topics, and players all on your favorite mobile devices.Powered by Minute Media © 2020 All Rights Reserved.Jeff Nelson Wants to Become Miami Marlins Pitching CoachWill Derek Dietrich Stay With the Miami Marlins in 2019? His “Tru” ERA-, basically Adjusted Contact Score with the non-contact outcomes added back in, was a minuscule 74. Hernandez posted an Adjusted Contact Score of 80, which would have been 2nd to deGrom’s 77 among ERA qualifiers. He had qualified for my minor league list three times, ranking #59 in 2015, #115 in 2016 and #128 in 2017, prior to his Rule 5 selection, and then did so a fourth time, peaking at #14 last season, when he posted an exceptional 69/14 K/BB ratio in 48 Triple-A innings.
Alcantara, Caleb Smith, Jose Urena, Pablo Lopez and Jordan Yamamoto all have legit claims thereto. But it’s been a different story in 2019, as he’s held batters to just a lowly .218 xwOBA, flipping the script on the contact numbers (40.6 strikeout percentage), driving the increase in his strikeouts.The more interesting thing about Hernandez’s slider this season is how he’s completely revamped it. I have been active in the baseball industry for about a quarter century (after beginning my career as a CPA), mostly as an Area Scout/Assistant Scouting Director/SpecialI have been active in the baseball industry for about a quarter century (after beginning my career as a CPA), mostly as an Area Scout/Assistant Scouting Director/Special Asst. A 3.98 ERA and a 1.342 WHIP are right around league average.
Marlins • #57 • P, RP, SP. In 2019, he showed flashes of excellence, but his pedestrian 5.03 ERA was driven by a whopping 20 homers allowed in just 82 1/3 innings, while playing his home games in an extreme pitchers’ park.
His fly ball rate of 42.5% and average launch angle allowed of 20.5 degrees both would have ranked first; both were over two full standard deviations higher than average. When he is on top of his game, he can strike out a myriad of batters.
Does not have ideal size for a pitcher in Major League Baseball.
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